Andrew Eil on the Future of Physical Risk
From Climate Risk 1.0 to 2.0
Andrew Eil has spent nearly two decades at the intersection of climate policy, finance, and technology. His career traces the evolution of “Physical Risk 1.0,” where climate risk was primarily about disclosure and regulatory compliance, into today’s “Physical Risk 2.0,” where businesses need actionable intelligence to guide real-world decisions. Recently, Andrew made a personal commitment to Athena Intelligence as its lead angel investor. In this interview, he reflects on how climate risk thinking has shifted, what companies are struggling with, and why Athena represents a new standard for connecting environmental change to financial outcomes.
Athena: Andrew, let’s start with the big picture. What do you see happening right now in climate and risk?
Andrew Eil: We’re living in a period of disruption. Climate isn’t a future risk anymore — it’s here, now, and it’s accelerating. Every season brings another set of extremes: wildfires, floods, heat waves, droughts. These events have always occurred, but their frequency and severity are on a new trajectory.
The real challenge is that our systems — financial, social, regulatory — were built for a different baseline. We designed them around stability and averages. Now, the extremes are driving outcomes. For businesses and investors, that means climate risk isn’t an abstract or long-term issue; it’s material, immediate, and often misunderstood.
Athena: You speak at many conferences, what are you hearing most from companies when they try to grapple with this?
Andrew Eil: Many are just beginning to assess their exposure, and the hardest piece for them is scenario analysis. How do you imagine a future that looks nothing like the present? We live in a complex society intertwined with natural systems we don’t fully understand, let alone model perfectly.
That’s why humility is so important. No one has all the answers. But companies still need tools that allow them to quantify exposures, test assumptions, and make defensible decisions. The goal isn’t perfection; it’s about moving from ignorance to intelligence.
Athena: You’ve described the shift from “Physical Risk 1.0” to “2.0.” Can you explain that evolution?
Andrew Eil: I think of Physical Risk 1.0 as the compliance era. In the late 2010s, frameworks like the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) became mainstream. That was valuable — it forced the financial sector to acknowledge climate risk as material.
Athena: Wow. I forgot it started that long ago. Many in the financial sector began paying attention in 2021, when the Bank of England conducted its first comprehensive stress test focused on the financial system’s ability to cope with climate change. It was mid-2024, when the results of the Federal Reserve’s Climate Scenario Analysis for the major banks were reported.
Andrew Eil: So, the first wave of solutions were built mainly to support disclosure. They produced risk scores, maps, or compliance-ready reports. That’s useful for awareness, but by 2021 it was clear these tools didn’t necessarily help a portfolio manager reallocate capital, or a utility decide where to invest in resilience.
Physical Risk 2.0 is where we are now. The conversation is shifting from disclosure for its own sake to actionable intelligence. It’s about integrating climate data into real workflows: credit underwriting, insurance pricing, supply chain planning, capital budgeting. In other words, using risk insights to make better business decisions.
Athena: Did you see opportunity in that shift?
Andrew Eil: The opportunity is in adaptation. Mitigation — reducing emissions — gets more attention, but resilience is just as critical. Think about microgrids, resilient supply chains, or even indoor air purification to cope with wildfire smoke. These are commercial opportunities tied directly to physical risk.
Investors are increasingly aware of this. Smart capital is flowing to technologies and data providers that help societies adapt. That’s the real frontier of climate solutions.
Athena: Before we get into your connection with Athena, can you walk us through your career path?
Andrew Eil: Sure. My career has been a thread connecting public policy, finance, and technology. I started in international development and later joined the State Department during the Obama years, working on climate and energy diplomacy. That period really gave me a global perspective on how climate interacts with politics and economics.
In 2014 I moved to New York and began consulting. I worked with development banks, aid agencies, and mission-driven investors to commercialize technologies that were socially and environmentally beneficial but needed help to compete against incumbents.
Later I joined a boutique advisory firm, which grew to about 20 people before being acquired by WSP in 2021. That experience taught me the entrepreneurial side of building a practice in climate finance.
Around that time, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) recruited me to build their North America climate risk practice. TCS is known as an IT services giant, but they were moving into high-value advisory work. My job was to be the “last-mile connector” between climate and environmental data providers and end-users in finance and insurance.
I joined just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The geopolitical environment shifted, but the substantive work of connecting data to decision-making was fascinating. That role is what ultimately connected me to Athena.
Athena: So how did you first encounter Athena?
Andrew Eil: While I was at TCS, we were always looking for differentiated data sources. I met David and Elizabeth from Athena and immediately saw something unique. Their approach to wildfire wasn’t just about mapping hazard zones — it was about translating landscape-level science into financial terms.
We tried some joint business development projects at the time. Even after I left TCS, I stayed in touch, because I knew there was something different here.
Athena: You’ve worked with dozens of climate tech companies. What made Athena stand out enough that you decided to invest personally?
Andrew Eil: As my largest holding, Athena is the crown jewel of my portfolio. Here’s why: most climate risk tools still live in that 1.0 world. They tell you the world is dangerous, but not what to do about it. Athena bridges the gap between science and the balance sheet.
The core technology creates what I think of as a “digital fingerprint of risk.” It layers vegetation, canopy cover, ignition history, fuel type — all the landscape-level variables — into a single, auditable, dynamic profile. That fingerprint can plug into underwriting models, Excel spreadsheets, or even derivative valuations.
That makes risk consistent and predictable. In a volatile environment where historical averages don’t hold, consistency is gold. Insurers, utilities, and portfolio managers need that defensible signal, and Athena provides it.
As an investor, I saw immediate product-market fit. As an advisor, I saw a team committed to scientific integrity but equally focused on usability. And as someone who’s been in this space for 20 years, I saw a solution built for the world we’re entering, not the one we’re leaving behind.
Athena: That’s a powerful endorsement. Looking back, would you say your decision to invest was personal, professional, or both?
Andrew Eil: Both. Professionally, I’ve spent my career trying to close the gap between climate science and financial markets. Athena has the potential to transform financial markets using environmental intelligence as few other companies have.
Personally, I wanted to back a team and a product I believe will make a difference. Wildfire is one of the most material risks facing North America right now. If Athena succeeds — and I believe it will — insurers will price capacity more accurately, utilities will plan more strategically, and communities will be safer. That’s impact I’m proud to support.
Athena: Thank you. I’d like to follow up with another interview soon. But if you had to sum up the climate risk landscape today in one sentence, what would it be?
Andrew Eil: We’ve moved past the era of disclosure for its own sake. The winners in climate risk will be the ones who provide actionable, consistent intelligence that connects the environment to financial outcomes. That’s why I invested in Athena.
The second half of this interview posted on September 3, 2025.
Athena Intelligence is a data vendor with a geospatial, conditional, profiling tool that pulls together vast amounts of disaggregated wildfire and environmental data to generate spatial intelligence, resulting in a digital fingerprint of wildfire risk.
If wildfire risk is on your mind, don’t stop here — explore some of our other articles. If your community is served by a municipally owned or cooperative electric utility, let them know about Athena Intelligence. Clients include financial services companies, insurance, electric utilities, communities and homeowners’ associations (HOAs). Athena’s geospatial intelligence is incorporated into multiple products that can be accessed through an online portal.
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