Wildfire Probability Risk

Athena Intelligence
2 min readJul 5, 2023

Athena’s Voice of the Acre® distinguishes between the conditions of the land (conditional risk) and likelihood of structural damage and economic loss (probability risk). This is akin to hurricane catastrophe modeling. What matters to a risk modeler is how many achieve landfall (frequency) and how much damage they do (severity).

Unfortunately, no similar concepts exist for wildfires.

Athena incorporates data from many different sources, including government agencies and academic research. The unique business proposition is this:

Rather that simply supplying the attributes of the land (ie. distance from a fire station or how many feet between a tree or wooden fence and the exterior of a house), the voice of the acre combines this into data that can be computed upon — for example, used to express probabilities of wildfire risk.

This fingerprint of the current conditions of the land can be used in business decision. For wildfires, we can look at those specific characteristics — how they performed across time and across locations.

Wildfire comes in many flavors, but only exists where the fuel and land conditions allow it to burn. The location’s conditions will change over time, so what is relevant is how historical conditions which were an exact match to this location’s current conditions behaved.

There is so much data, that to turn it into useful information, across multiple axis, requires machine learning to tease out the nuances of risk.

That is what Athena’s Voice of the Acre® does when expressing the Wildfire Probability Risk — the likelihood of structural damage and economic loss.

Athena Intelligence is a data vendor with a geospatial, conditional, profiling tool that pulls together vast amounts of disaggregated wildfire and environmental data to generate spatial intelligence, resulting in a digital fingerprint of wildfire risk.

For power companies, this helps them assess, a year in advance, where a consequential fire is most likely. For insurance or financial services companies, this assists in underwriting, portfolio risk optimization and loss cost probabilities for reserving.

Contact us at info@Project-Athena.com and follow us here and on LinkedIn.

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Athena Intelligence

Athena Intelligence weaves vast amounts of disaggregated environmental data. Drop us a line (Info@Project-Athena.com), or visit www.athenaintel.io