Wildfire Risk — Alternatives to the WHP

In the world of property and casualty insurance, there have been a number of AI/ML entrants in wildfire risk assessment. Arguably, Athena Intelligence is just another one.

Most of the insurance world is still focused cat models based on the US government’s Wildland Hazard Potential (the WHP). Here is an example of Athena’s model in an area of Montana.

By highlighting the Green areas, where wildfires are unlikely to spread, underwriters can accept high premiums without adverse selection. By avoiding Red areas, regardless of what the WHP says, underwriters can avoid riskier properties.

For Insurers, Athena has products for underwriting, risk management, portfolio pricing, reserving — for brokers, MGAs, carriers, reinsurers and ILS investors. We are rolling out a similar suite for electric utilities.

Athena’s risk assessment is for next 12 months, and is updated annually. (Clients often request more frequent updates, to take into account burn scars … but this is in contrast to the WHP which is updated less frequently.

We don’t know where the fires will occur.

But what we know is that at the end of the year, regardless of how many fires occur or where they occur, clients will be able to look back and know that 70%+ of all fires will have occurred in Red Areas (with the majority in Dark Red or Targeted Red areas). Less than 5% will have occurred in the Green Areas. Less than 1% of all the area involved with wildfires will be in the Targeted Green or Dark Green areas.

So your underwriting decisions can be straightforward — underwrite Green, Targeted Green, or Yellow, with appropriate pricing and guidelines.

Athena is a next generation InsurTech data vendor which produces synthetic data. The earth’s essential data is refined to make it easy for enterprises to use environmental information for future contracts, proprietary business decisions and risk management.

Contact us at Info@Project-Athena.com